2030- no petrol or diesel- What would you buy now?

S

Scruffy

Senior Member
VIP Member
T6 Legend
Do I order a new T6 now ( for delivery halfway through next year) or do I hold out for a hybrid/electric T7 sometime in the future? A few things going through my mind are the value of my current vehicle, which is a plus, but the resale value of a T6.1 in 5-6 years time? which is.......well, who knows! In 2025-6 will I be able to sell on my old tech T6.1? ( with it's leaking windows) or will I be left with a big lump of metal no one wants anymore?

A new T6 is a massive expense, but that has always been offset by the excellent resale value, but if that resale value is no longer a positive, what do you do? I know none of you have a crystal ball, but your thoughts please.
 
There will still be a huge secondhand market for ICE vehicles for a good 10-15 years after 2030. Just because there will be no more produced, doesn't mean that everyone will be able to buy/lease a new electric vehicle. Just look at how many early T5s you still see around now. They are getting on close to 20 years old now.

The only way that you can rule out any uncertainty is to lease your new vehicle, therefore securing the costs of 'owning' it for that fixed period of time, then moving onto another new one. When the right deals come along, providing you don't go silly with the options and intend to not modify it, it can work out a little cheaper than buying outright, then selling or px-ing when you come to change. I'm sure this is what the powers that be are slowly trying to encourage us all to do, getting people out of the bangernomics way of running vehicles. That's all well and good, but when some people are quite comfortable with paying £500 a month to run a vehicle, whether that be rented, or broken down cost of ownership, there are plenty of people that can only just scrape together £500 a year to have a car to get them to work.
 
I think a well looked after fossil fuel van will be sought after.

The technology doesn't yet support the weight and distance requirements for commercial vehicles. Most alternative fuel companies and research believes we will end up with Hydrogen fuel cells. I won't invest in either until that argument is proven.

The rule change is no new vehicles, so supply will dry up and second hand will be the only option and lots of people will still want that. The risk is they inflate fuel prices or ban vans from built up areas. Hopefully it will mean those vans left will appreciate in value.
 
I imagine that the times ahead will be uncertain. The Government only mentions preventing sales of new vehicles after 2030. That could possibly affect pricing existing stocks either way. The investment in newer technologies, including an increase in charging stations may possibly lead to a reduction in the numbers of normal fuels stations because they may move over to embrace charging. If that where so it would become increasingly inconvenient to have to hunt around for diesel. Prices for diesel and petrol would likely saw and the government of the time may well choose to raise taxes to encourage people to change to the so called greener option in any case. Traditional vehicle prices may well then tumble.

Some people may try to hang on to their vehicle investment. I believe that as we are going the Electric way, that the Government will brief very heavily against fossil fuels and show how damaging they are to change public perceptions. People that buck the trend will then be seen as pariahs. That will make way for increased legislature against fossil fuel use and that most of the public will then back this. Government Ministers will also have personally invested in companies related to Electric Cars and have other links also to such as charging facilities and so called Green Energy. So they will have conflicts of interest just as many of those in the Government have today as we are finding out!
 
Given in the last ten years the charging infrastructure still is not in place I don’t have confidence that it will be in place in 9 years time. And, unless something is done to centralise the payment systems of the current and future charging network, it will continue to a complete nightmare trying to find a charging point you can use, especially on a long journey. I spoke to someone recently who has a Jaguar i pace and does around 20k miles a year and he can’t wait until the end of his lease to get rid of it. His experience of trying to find charging points that he can use, and if they’re actually working when you do find one, he finds it incredibly stressful especially when the range indicator says say 60 miles to go. He said, in reality, that’s only about 40 or 50 miles. He’s got to a charging point to find it doesn’t work and the next point is 50 miles away. He’s then stressed out thinking will the car make it there.
 
It could also be a bit like the air-cooled / liquid cooled debate many years ago, lets face it, who wouldn't rather be driving a diesel powered vehicle with numerous dpf issues when you could have a clean electric vehicle of the future!.. :eek:
 
RayF said:
Given in the last ten years the charging infrastructure still is not in place I don’t have confidence that it will be in place in 9 years time. And, unless something is done to centralise the payment systems of the current and future charging network, it will continue to a complete nightmare trying to find a charging point you can use, especially on a long journey. I spoke to someone recently who has a Jaguar i pace and does around 20k miles a year and he can’t wait until the end of his lease to get rid of it. His experience of trying to find charging points that he can use, and if they’re actually working when you do find one, he finds it incredibly stressful especially when the range indicator says say 60 miles to go. He said, in reality, that’s only about 40 or 50 miles. He’s got to a charging point to find it doesn’t work and the next point is 50 miles away. He’s then stressed out thinking will the car make it there.
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I agree. I have friends in the NHS who borrowed one of the hospital electric vehicle to visit friends wedding a very long way from them. They did not get very far before needing a charge as the previous user had forgotten to charge it. they took ages to find some where but it was a slow charger. That did not get them that many mile before needing to stop again. This happened repeatedly on the way until they eventually needed recovery from a motorway. I do not quite remember how it went but I believe that they ended up not going in the end and coming home.

If this was Germany or some a Scandinavian Country it would just get sorted. We however are a walking disaster. TUV works very well and efficiently in Germany and companies still thrive. Products can be expensive because of going through process but in this country it would mean the end of life because it would never be done properly.
 
Scruffy said:
Do I order a new T6 now ( for delivery halfway through next year) or do I hold out for a hybrid/electric T7 sometime in the future? A few things going through my mind are the value of my current vehicle, which is a plus, but the resale value of a T6.1 in 5-6 years time? which is.......well, who knows! In 2025-6 will I be able to sell on my old tech T6.1? ( with it's leaking windows) or will I be left with a big lump of metal no one wants anymore?

A new T6 is a massive expense, but that has always been offset by the excellent resale value, but if that resale value is no longer a positive, what do you do? I know none of you have a crystal ball, but your thoughts please.
Click to expand...
The VW scene will always be there so you won’t have an issue selling on. It’s a long way to go until the infrastructure is there for full electric vehicles so I think people will hold on to the ‘old’ vans. Perhaps old stinky T6.1’s will become more desirable, who knows but there will always be the next thing, do you leave buying a T7 as a T8 will be out?
Cheers Ian :thumbsup: :thumbsup:
 
All the news I've heard today has mentioned cars.

We might be somewhere near getting some sort of infrastructure in place to 'fuel' little cars driving around towns, but we are a very long way from being able to power large commercial vehicles.
 
Us Brit’s will still be paying for the uncontrolled Covid 19 expenditure in 10 years time; no doubt Scandinavian tax rates on Eastern European salary levels.
The car industry will need to price the EV’s for the market demand / affordability.
Given that the overall objective is to reduce power and raw material consumption the Gov’ has the perfect opportunity to legislate now against motor manufacturers producing the next range of electric Chelsea tractors with a 0-60MPH of 2 sec’s.
 
Look how much value there is in classic cars these days. A good spec, well looked after van will be cherished.

That’s my take on it plus not everyone will want an electric vehicle.

I wouldhave one of these though, electric or not.

05195A91-CB42-4A3C-A987-9CF472D4D22E.jpeg
 
Ali-G said:
I can’t see it happening for a very long time, the infrastructure just isn’t there, how do people who live in high rise blocks of flats or in Victorian terraced streets charge electric cars?
The government will probably just keep deferring it.
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I would imagine it will be like it is on some places in China. The road charges the car as it drives along.
 
If we think about the arguments for electric vehicles, they are compelling and millions of car users could quite easily switch to an EV for their daily motoring, and the government wants us to ditch our cars anyway and use public transport and cycles. The politicians don't care about the family in a block of flats with no possibility of charging an EV.
But a commercial vehicle is a very different beast used by a very different motorist. A commercial vehicle such as the T6 is frequently used all day, with no time to recharge, or at various sites with no charging facilities and is often carrying heavy weights.
Think about today's delivery drivers, speeding from one drop to the next for 10 or 12 hours a day with few or no breaks. This use does not suit an EV.
Most hauliers will not be using battery power anytime soon, the batteries wouldn't last long pulling 44 tonnes from Felixstowe docks to North Wales, although bin lorries powered by batteries are being trialled in Oxford, a very different type of use.
I think it likely that only passenger cars will be subject to the legislation, i.e. manufacturers will be allowed to fit petrol / diesel engines to commercials, certainly until EV or hydrogen power is developed that suits commercial users.
The mad thing is that it is said that road transport contributes to around 7% of man made carbon emissions.
The use of EV's will make not a jot of difference to the climate but hopefully will bring cleaner air in our built up areas.
 
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