Totally agree, lots of variables to consider and I know what you are saying about ambient temperature having a massive affect on how hard the fridge has to work (when the temperature overnight gets much below 8c the ice box defrosts suggesting that the compressor has not been running overnight). The flip side of this is that I had similar periods of running the fridge over the summer.
Ultimately the solar panel is doing what I wanted and providing the ability to keep the fridge running 24/7 year round and enables me to run off grid with addition of lighting and heater for a few days when required.
All I have to monitor battery state is a simple red/amber/green dial together with a battery charge state indicator on the charge controller; over the last 3 weeks I have not seen either go out of the green and for most of the time the charge controller is flashing suggesting fully charged.
Also worth saying that our drive faces North East so the solar panel is in shade of the house from around noon at the moment.
For info: Panel is a 100w PV Logic flexible and charge controller is standard Solar Technology one:-
100 Watt Panel Kit