Diesel T6 Depreciation and What's around the corner

[amdowney]

So diesel engines will be a thing of the past in years to come and major towns and cities are looking to charge at least euro 5 and below vehicles a toxin tax with clean air zones coming in 2019. It's clear diesel is going out of fashion with used car prices plummeting:

Used diesel cars have lost up to a quarter of their value since the start of 2017

It looks like van prices are as yet pretty solid still but over the next year or so will euro 5 t6 vans start to loose significant value because of this (and euro 6 soon after maybe)? It has got me thinking at the moment whether it might be wise to look at moving my euro 5 on already as I still have my t5 sat here unsold I could make use of in the meantime that I could loose less on.

Also what info do we have we on hybrid electric T6.1/T7? I do short journeys mostly, have to say I like the sound of hybrid tech!

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[Insert Coin]

I think customers in the T5/T6 market are a bit different than the rest of the car buying populace, there's quite a good demand for the right vehicle and I think used diesels will still be a popular choice in years to come if the spec is right.

I had the choice of petrol or diesel when I placed my van order, but I kind of like the modern lazy torquey diesels mated to a dsg and obviously the mpg is a bonus.

All of this is subject to Euro 4/5/6 diesels not getting some kind of massive VED increase. New vans aren't included in April's increases I don't think?

 

[amdowney]

Just looking at the VW configurator and petrol options. I do a lot of short journeys really and have a 180 DSG 4motion and I'm just not feeling it - seems sluggish and cumbersome even compared to my old t5 manual FWD (was a remapped 102). Thinking I might prefer a revvy manual petrol which might make more sense with the above also. 10k cheaper a 150 petrol over a 204 dsg 4motion in the builder!!! Thinking I could sell this and get a brand new one of them for the same money and that potentially hold it's value better.

 

[Dieseldonkey]

Mmmhm. It's a very tricky line to tread just now. Remember, it wasn't all that long ago that petrol was the villain. All that CO2 adding to the greenhouse effect.

So economical diesel was the greenhouse savier. But no wait, some crafty and cunning engineers at VW diddled the figures and got rumbled by some scientists. Now it's NOx and particulate producing diesels that are the bad guys.

Just now, there seems to be an ignoring of the fact that lithium, is apparently a bit of an environmental mare when it comes to extracting and recycling the stuff. I'm sure it to, will take it's place on the naughty step at some point in the future. The required upgrading of the national grid and current knife edge state of our generating capacity doesn't seem to get mentioned either, when it comes to electric vehicles. Imagine the demand if every household plugged in a car or two at night.

I wonder when the politicians get a grasp of that, if maybe the dieselgate, knee jerk hysteria may settle down a bit.

 

[DaveyB]

I often say the exact same thing about the national grid and our generating capacity. What the hell do the politicians think is running those power stations? It sure as heck isn’t fluffy rabbits on treadmills.

 

[SofaKing]

Just remeber: EU have a clear goal reducing CO2. - saving world over cities. Going petrol is the wrong way, and as soon as the share of petrols increase, new and hard requirements, taxes and so on will be unleashed on all petrolheads. Keep your diesel, you will have a new car anyway before 2025 when actual alternatives will be available...

 

[Mark Woodward]

Electric transporter coming soon too right? Volkswagen: Electric cars will soon become a mainstream choice | Autocar

 

[SofaKing]

I’ve had a Nissan Leaf for 5 years now. Its a perfect car and rather cheap in Norway. No problem with it, dont need service (just some brake greasing and air filter change anyone can do). Brand new it cost me 22k pounds, thats mainly because there are no taxes and fees here as to stimulate selecting ev’s.

So why dont we see more ev’s? They will come, but dont believe it will be a revolution! The question is if its already too late...
Congrats, humans: You broke the world

VW EV goal is that 25% of sales in 2025 is electric. No need to get worried today. Volkswagen to 'Electrify' All 300 of Its Cars and SUVs by 2030
«VW estimates that around one in four of its group’s new vehicles—or up to three million units a year depending on how the market develops—could be purely battery-powered in 2025. VW has earmarked more than €20 billion ($25 billion) through 2030 that will be spent on electrific».

 

[Aljon]

They are saying that direct drive petrol engines are pushing out quite a lot of particles .More than an indirect drive engine and that by September 2018 they will introduce a G P F ( Gasoline Particle Filter ) so who knows
which way it is all going. Only the T6 gang know which way

 

[Caulkhead]

It’s all up in the air at the moment ..... ok ok taxi

 

[Dieseldonkey]

I often say the exact same thing about the national grid and our generating capacity. What the hell do the politicians think is running those power stations? It sure as heck isn’t fluffy rabbits on treadmills.

Yeah @DaveyB. In Scotland we rely on fluffy bunny farts to power our wind turbines. Government went along with allowing our primary power station to get shut down because it was apparently, too expensive to keep it connected to the national grid!

 

[Phil_G]

Look at the big picture, none of this matters a jot.
In just a few billion years the Earth will be engulfed by the Sun whether your T(n x 10^9) van is lecky, petrol or weezel.
Just enjoy what you have, while you have it.
Cheers
Phil

 

[amdowney]

Look at the big picture, none of this matters a jot.
In just a few billion years the Earth will be engulfed by the Sun whether your T(n x 10^9) van is lecky, petrol or weezel.
Just enjoy what you have, while you have it.
Cheers
Phil

Which is why I'm swinging more towards a TSI as can be mapped to 300HP which will be far more fun!

 

[Vinci]

A study by a top uk university apparently states that if every street in the uk has just one electric vehicle plugged in to recharge, the National Grid wouldn't cope. Little thought has gone into the practical side of electric vehicles. The current swing to petrol will lead to panic levels of CO2 and another knee jerk reaction, annnnd diesels will be rack in favour.
Hydrogen cell units are the real future IMHO, hydrogen is the most plentiful gas available and the exhaust is pure water.

 

[Dieseldonkey]

Hydrogen doesn't have the lithium problem associated with it. But one of its down sides is that it requires a massive amount of electricity to produce enough to supply demand. Back to the drawing board.

 

[Stigofthedub]

Another slant.
Whether it's a myth or not with modern engines now I don't know, but certainly going back some years and you got to 100k miles with a petrol engine and it was done. More recently petrol engines do significantly more miles but still not anything like a lower reving diesel. I wouldn't consider a petrol with 150k miles on the clock but I regularly see mk4 golfs with in excess of 200k going fine. You could argue you wouldn't Keep it that long but as both approach 150k which will sell and be worth the most? A very rough estimate would indicate 150k miles in a petrol could cost around £6k more in fuel over that time. Hmm I'm for sticking with diesel.

 

[Mooncat]

Another slant.
Whether it's a myth or not with modern engines now I don't know, but certainly going back some years and you got to 100k miles with a petrol engine and it was done. More recently petrol engines do significantly more miles but still not anything like a lower reving diesel. I wouldn't consider a petrol with 150k miles on the clock but I regularly see mk4 golfs with in excess of 200k going fine. You could argue you wouldn't Keep it that long but as both approach 150k which will sell and be worth the most? A very rough estimate would indicate 150k miles in a petrol could cost around £6k more in fuel over that time. Hmm I'm for sticking with diesel.

That's just technology moving on. More capable component machining, better designed components, better cooling systems (faster warm up and more consistent operating temperature), better lubrication systems (including oil-ways, grooves etc within the components) and although oil is still blended from the same dinosaur remains, it much more stable and they have different additives. If I think about the first cars I had, the body had disintegrated well before anything major went wrong with the mechanicals so engines back then were probably more than fit for purpose!

 

[Blitz]

Just buying my Diesel T6. At the moment their are no real options out their esp second hand. Would I save any money buying the new petrol version? No because depreciation from New has saved me thousands already. Vans will be behind cars anyway in the electric revolution so unless we wait years then you have to buy what’s available.
However for us T6 owners (with obviously new ish vans ) I guess waiting for a hybrid etc T7 is a real consideration. I won’t be rushing into another replacement with a standard engine yet , I’ll wait it out I think. Better keeping it a few years longer than planned than buying old gen engines at new prices. That will kill your resale values.
Also some people who rushed out to buy the new T6 have been double done (those who bought without knowing) and got the old Euro 5 engine. That will have already damaged the resale value. I researched obviously and didn’t even look at vans with the older 140 engine.

 

[Ewan Kennedy]

Bought mine as a pre reg withe 5 year warranty and expecting at least 12 year lifespan making worst case scenario 4500 capital cost per year assuming no resale vale after 12 years
Think thats a bargain for all the use its going to get.
Don't worry too much about what you can't change .... Just use and enjoy

 

[Oldrat]

Here in London, we will soon have to pay not only a congestion charge to drive in the central area, but, unless your diesel is Euro 6, ( at the moment at least) you will need to pay a £25 per day fee for pollution charge in the Ultra Low Emmission Zone.

Even as I write, the Mayor is consulting on extending this ULEZ much wider to encompass most of London (within North and South Circular roads).

There are enough sources of alternative vehicles to replace all the buses taxis lorries private vehicles etc.