Brexit: Any Small Business Owner On Here?

[Tourershine]

Don't worry, this isn't a political thread, and nor does it need to be owning to such a vast spectrum of opinions on Brexit.

It's a general question to any small/medium sized business owners on here.
There is a very obvious tension in my industry (Caravans and Motorhomes) which is having quite an impact on my business, and i'm wondering if this is a universal issue with all industries, or is it currently effecting less important household spends like my leisure industry.

I've been doing what I do for 11 years now, and other than the inconsistent first couple of years when starting off my business, my work has been almost a guaranteed full diary at least 10 months of the year (which is normal for an industry like mine)
This last few months has been very different, and not something that can be put down to 'our normal outside anomalies'
Going back the last 8 years through my diary, we'd be busy pretty much up to mid December, and then slow, but average from January/February, then full on flat out March onwards, with around 6/8 week lead times.
2018 we saw work tail off around September, and it's only really trickled in up to now. March onwards is booked about 50% which sounds good, but in reality we'd normally be starting our long lead times by now.

The odd thing is, i'm getting the same amount of enquiries, which would normally calculate to around 85% of enquiries making a booking. This also has drastically dropped to around 20% making bookings, something I've never experienced. Even in the recession my business was flat out, because more people kept their Caravans and Motorhomes, and had us Restore them, rather than px for new.

I'm just wondering if this is something that's effecting other businesses and who's being effected industry wise. It's obvious that the first things to suffer are the luxuries in peoples lives, and a Caravan or Motorhome is classed as one of those.

Maybe this is a temporary issue, but it's easier to gauge what's going on from smaller businesses, than the media who claim the world is going to end every other week.

 

[Jean-Louis Bourdon]

My opinion is what you're seeing is due to the uncertainty.

Are we in, out with a (good/bad) deal, or out with no deal ?

If the government manages to push back brexit or have a second referendum,
the extended period where people won't invest because they can't bet on the future will be catastrophic

That and seeing politicians bickering endlessly for their own privileges or vendettas,
no wonder we've got Yellow Jackets in France... wouldn't be surprised if it spreads to other countries and politicians get a letter saying "their positions are at risk" (like redundancies letter)

oh and adding. F the medias... they always hide behind the "journalists are impartials" but they clearly take side. even the ads are politicized (for example representing the men as useless baffons or toxic masculinity like the Gillette ad)

that's why i bought the van, being able to disconnect from the madness, and if the world come to an end, watch it burn from the hiltops of Dorset, eating popcorn

 

[Tourershine]

Maybe I shouldn't of used the 'B' word.

 

[Loz]

Brexit is just the current cause of FUD (Fear Uncertainty and Doubt) and not for this topic.
Generally change is good and generates as many opportunities as it causes issues.
As a micro business we notice these periods and have lived through loads since we started in 2000. We started a dot com business just as the bubble burst, but we were 3 years into development so just had to continue.
Everytime we we are in a period of FUD there seems to be a general "tightening" of the belt and people just hold on to their money, put off or delay purchase decisions.

FUD can help your business, take network.internet security, the more FUD the more business are scared and the more they spend on defences.
As you are in a very particular vertical market you are likely to be suffering 2 issues. The first being the lack of spending and the second, will be newcomers to the market reticent to take on this hobby/lifestyle if going back a forwards to Europe becoming a hassle and a flyaway holiday might seem more appealing in the short term.

What one needs to do. is to adapt the sales message to suit the climate. I am sure one of yours is around protecting the asset you have and making it last longer etc. thus changing your proposition from a nice to have to a must have..

 

[LakesT6]

I’d say that what you’re seeing is fairly widespread. I’m a Operations Manager at a well known provider of bus services, but I have a close friend that runs his own coach company.

It’s a family run business that has been trading for over 20 years now, it’s always been profitable and they have never really struggled for work. They are currently seeing a slump in business, from private customers (weddings, hen/stag, general PH work). This isn’t a problem in the short term because they have guaranteed income from county council school contracts, but it is concerning.

There is also the uncertainty of operational issues sending vehicles into Europe from the UK post that thing that’s going on. On top of the this there is ULEZ coming in April which leaves operators needing EU6 vehicles for any London work. This is subsequently driving down the price of used EU5 coaches making it a double edged sword for operators wishing to upgrade to a EU6 model.

There’s too much uncertainty about.

 

[Pauly]

I think it times of uncertainty if people are going to hold off spending then luxuries are the first to go and your job sounds like a luxury on a luxury item !
I still fail to see the major impact that could come, outside of multi nationals/their employees etc and companies that deal with Europe a lot ie exporting/sending services etc, I’m sure things will stabilise once some decisions are made and announced I just wish it wasn’t so drawn out.
We are based in construction in the SW and can’t say I have noticed any negative impact for us yet or heard anything from any of our colleagues regards a downturn in work

 

[Tourershine]

Thanks for the insight chaps.

This is uncharted territory for me at only a decade old. Yes we are a luxury service and our prices can reflect this, so I know we will be one of the first to potentially see any changes, but it's always worth seeing how other services are fairing.
I can sustain a year of very quiet work, and potentially several years of slowing down, so I'm not overly concerned. (Might have to stop buying wheels and tyres for the time being)

Let's just hope somethings sorted soon, so we can get some sort of normality back to this country.

 

[gal2009]

I own a carpentry company also sw based, and we specialise in the retirement sector for a couple of national companies. I have certainly seen a negative swing in future developments. Contracts that were in the pipeline 1-2 years ago have been shelved or abandoned altogether. I would at this time of year be looking at four contracts in the bag. As it stands i have two and can't see where the others are coming from. No one is pinning it on Brexit from the conversations i have had, but the uncertainty of it all imo has got to have an effect on all sectors. I sincerely feel for any small company which deals with Europe directly.

 

[Loz]

(Might have to stop buying wheels and tyres for the time being)

And there you have it, now tyre business will be suffering. Their marketing departments will start releasing more youtube videos and write more stories for the press on how bad the winter is going to be and getting more users to buy winter tyres to cover your lost business ...

 

[Tourershine]

And there you have it, now tyre business will be suffering. Their marketing departments will start releasing more youtube videos and write more stories for the press on how bad the winter is going to be and getting more users to buy winter tyres to cover your lost business ...

You are a wise man Mr Miyagi, and some of your wisdom over the last couple of years makes perfect sense.

 

[Scruffy]

I work in the broadcast media, and do quite a bit of corporate work, normally for big companies. Whenever there is a down turn, or predicted down turn, the training videos etc are always the first to go. And yes, I've definitely noticed a slump in the corporate work. A 4 week job I had in the summer in France, has just been given to another crew, Spanish I've heard. Well done Brexshitters , that's an awful lot of income tax not coming this way.

 

[Chris Joyce]

I run my own window blind/shutter company, and similar to you I would class what I sell as a maybe not a luxury item but certainly a take it or leave it product.

We have certainly seen a slight downturn in orders, our enquiries have stayed relatively similar but where we used to be fitting out full houses, customers are maybe having quotes for all of there windows but only ordering the most important ones they need, I certainly see this with new builds.

I think with every sector, diversity is key, during the last recession we had to add to our product range and move into supplying and installing curtains for instance, looking at other sector as opposed to just domestic to find other sources of work.

In the long run this has helped us enormously, although tricky at the start, relationships gained back then are paying dividends now.

I appreciated every sector is different and adding to the list of products you offer can be difficult but where possible I'd always be looking to expand into different areas.

Not to get to much into brexit but as others have said I think the current uncertainty is a key factor, I also personally think this won't last to long once we get a final deal or decision on what's going to happen.

 

[Lord Mfwic]

I work for a selection of Blue Chip companies. I had a meeting yesterday with one of these companies which (unusually) was at board level to discuss a major refurb of one of their UK manufacturing plants (they manufacture car engines) anyway, we are sitting round the table with high level directors and they are telling me they want to wait till the 29th March before placing the order. When questioned as to why, the only answer they had was they were concerned that they would not be able to import the parts they need which they import from Europe. (A big problem perhaps)
Now I'm just a small time construction company but it seems to me that if we leave on a no deal brexit, I cannot believe that Germany or any other major impoter to the UK is all of a sudden going to stop thier trade with us. In fact, If we leave on a no deal I'm confident they will sort out a trade deal with hours.
What we need to remember is They need us more than we need them.
It's all just scare mongering.
When you think about it logically, it's just business. We are a very big client to the EU and if we play hard ball they will concede. There is no way they will want to lose the business they trade with us. It would have a catastrophic effect on their economy.
It may be a few difficult months ahead but the UK WILL come out of this more prosperous, of that I have no doubt.

The general public need to have more confidence in our country and the standing we hold on the world trade market.
Unfortunately people scare easily and that is why we are all seeing a down turn in business but if you are able to ride the storm I'm confident business will return and we will be busier than ever.

Its just like 2008 but it will recover in months not years.

 

[Steve H]

Yes, maybe it wasn't wise to open the can of Brexit in public..

You are not alone in sensing a pausing of orders (I'd hesitate to say turndown) within the leisure industry. I'm not self employed, nor on any board of directors, but I've recently retired after working as part of the Morgan Motor Company. Morgan make sporting cars and have done for well over a hundred years, and is still a family run, wholly UK industry employing just over 200 people at their factory in Malvern. The prime competitors to Morgan sales aren't other car marques, but motor caravans and yachts/speed boats.

The last year saw a slowing of output of new builds, which was offset by a final anniversary run of the alloy chassis V8 models in very limited numbers. The reason for the finality..? Legislation, in a nutshell.

The large capacity V8's were BMW, and as a manufacturer they ceased production. Morgan managed to buy a small number for the limited editions, and now they're gone, they're gone.

I think part of the pausing in motorhome market is down to the uncertainty of where the demonising of diesel is heading. Motoring is heading electric whether we agree or not, and for anyone about to shell out some serious wedge on a 'van, things like this make them wobble. Peers and friends pose the question to prospective purchasers and it compounds the doubt.

Add this to the turmoil of Brexit, and the uncertainty builds very quickly.

I very much doubt that the pause will be a whole year. Each day brings changes, but I'm pretty sure everyone will be fighting harder just to stand still. Morgan have dropped several dealers over recent months, and have now started selling direct from the factory, something that other dealers absolutely hate for obvious reasons..!

You're quite right that it's a leisure thing. Leisure is disposable and adaptable. Keep at it, chaps..

 

[Tourershine]

Well, a thoroughly good read, and although it's only confirmed what I assumed was going on with the current spending trend, it's almost a slight sigh of relief that it's not just my niche corner of the leisure industry that's been temporarily effected by consumer uncertainty.
I think people like @Loz sum things up elegantly, the 'been there, seen it, and wore the t-shirt on the other side' attitude is for me an indication that this is hopefully just a blip in the British way of life, soon to be condemned in the history books of the things the British learn from.

I think part of the pausing in motorhome market is down to the uncertainty of where the demonising of diesel is heading. Motoring is heading electric whether we agree or not, and for anyone about to shell out some serious wedge on a 'van, things like this make them wobble. Peers and friends pose the question to prospective purchasers and it compounds the doubt.

On a slightly different note.
All my years in this industry, and 99% of it dealing directly with the public, not once has this subject been mentioned strangely enough.
As a Motorhome owner myself, it's also not something i'd think about in this decade at least. The reality is a MH is often large, heavy, and more than often MH owners buy them for the freedom, and with freedom comes distance. I moved from Caravans, to Motorhomes 4 years ago, and the number one reason for this move was to be able to travel conveniently across Europe. I personally cannot see the move to Electric, or Petrol being a viable option for Motorhomes for a long time yet, and haven't seen or heard this being mentioned as a reason to not buy into this hobby, ever. That problem might be for the next generation to consider.

 

[Oldrat]

Agree that motorhome that and camper folks have little choice in the near future.

The problem with diesel being demonised and banned from city centres and wider will however make people far more reluctant to invest £XX k in a new motorhome / camper given that it’s value will drop faster than a lead brick in the near future.

This must have a knock on effect on related businesses.

Keep up the good work

 

[Loz]

One of the things we had to do in 2010 was to change the way we sold our product, we used to sell a software licence and then a yearly support. What we started to see back then was a big hit on monthly sales when periods like this happened it became harder and harder to hit that monthly sales target. So what we did was slowly change over to a subscription model.
There are some downsides to cashflow in the short term but longer term gains in stability and a smoothing effect on the cashflow.
With a lower cost of entry with subscription the sales became easy and it also made it harder for the competition to knock us aside.
Also companies have lost a lot of capital spend but subscription becomes a revenue item and much easier to grant plus it also drops below the tender threshold.
It is tough but you must remain optimistic...

 

[andys]

"Don't panic Mr Mainwaring"

"We're all doomed"

The 2 current states of mind. My business always does slightly better during a recession so I'm in the first camp. Any of us who were around in 1987 when everything fell through the floor will remember the papers predicting the end of the financial system and civilisation in general. Each time since I think "here we go again". Just a blip for future history students to write essays on and the winners will be the ones who take advantage of any crash to invest in their future and hang on. We've got decades before the actual end of the world.

 

[Tourershine]

Can I just confirm I wasn't panicking. I just wondered if other industries were seeing the same drop as I was.

 

[andys]

Can I just confirm I wasn't panicking. I just wondered if other industries were seeing the same drop as I was.

Yes wasn't meaning you, just the headlines being blasted at the proletariat so that they panic and stop spending money